Prediction of Hydropower Energy Price Using Gómes-Maravall Seasonal Model

Authors

  • Arash Jamalmanesh
  • Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi
  • Ahmad Seifi
  • Mohammad Ali Falahi

Abstract

The present research is aimed at investigating the possibility of predicting average monthly electricity prices and presenting a model for predicting electricity price in Iranian market considering unique characteristics of electricity as a commodity. For this purpose, time series data on average monthly electricity price during 2006–2015 was used. Firstly, unit root test was used to investigate stationarity of time series of electricity price. Then, using Gómes-Maravall model, an ARIMA model was estimated for predicating electricity price in Iranian market using energy purchase data from a hydropower plant. The model was run utilizing SEATS (Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series) and TARMO (“Time Series Regression with ARIMA Noise, Missing Observations, and Outliers”) programs. For this purpose, energy purchase data from three Karun river hydropower plants (Khuzestan Province, Iran) was used.Keywords: Electricity Prices, Hydropower, Seasonal Gómes-Maravall ModelJEL Classifications: Q41, Q43

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Downloads

Published

2018-03-20

How to Cite

Jamalmanesh, A., Mashhadi, M. K., Seifi, A., & Falahi, M. A. (2018). Prediction of Hydropower Energy Price Using Gómes-Maravall Seasonal Model. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(2), 81–88. Retrieved from https://econjournals.net.tr/index.php/ijeep/article/view/6194

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 2 (2018)

Section

Articles

License

Submission of an article implies that the work described has not been published previously , that it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere, that its publication is approved by all authors and tacitly or explicitly by the responsible authorities where the work was carried out, and that, if accepted, will not be published elsewhere in the same form, without the written consent of the Publisher. The Editors reserve the right to edit or otherwise alter all contributions, but authors will receive proofs for approval before publication.